Compared to the “hot” summers of credit crises, commodity spikes, euro crises and fiscal cliffs in recent years, the outlook for the summer of 2014 looks relatively benign. 

## Equities reach all-time highs while volatility dives

![](https://api.nnip.com/DocumentsApi/v1/images/RWS_A_080443/display)

## Markets are remarkably calm

The Summer has come, the World Cup has come to an end while markets are calm. It could not be a better time to go on holiday, lie down on the beach and relax. Or could it? Despite the low level of volatility in markets and a remarkable stability in macroeconomic and investor behaviour, many investors are actually concerned about exactly that: the suspicious degree of stability in the system. Everybody seems to wonder what the catch is.

## Outlook for summer of 2014 looks benign

The fact that the current macro or market stability itself can contribute to future instability (basically by creating over-confidence and excessive risk-taking) is an obvious reason to have this concern. Yet, at the same time it is clear that these periods of stability can last for months, if not years. Mostly (not always, think of 1987!), shifts from a low-volatility to a high-volatility regime need a trigger to materialise. These triggers do not seem that obvious to identify during this summer. There are always things that could go wrong or unexpected shocks that could materialise – nothing is more certain than that – but compared to the “hot” summers of credit crises, commodity spikes, euro crises and fiscal cliffs in recent years, the outlook for the summer of 2014 looks relatively benign.