Given the persisting robust economic indicators and corporate earnings in the US, tentative signs of improvement in Asia and lower oil prices, we are not convinced that the outlook for global growth has deteriorated sharply in recent weeks.

## Lower oil prices in spite of geopolitical tensions


## Greater uncertainty in three areas

There is greater uncertainty in three areas. Firstly, in geopolitical terms. The situation in Ukraine, the sanctions imposed by the EU and US and countersanctions imposed by Russia have not only caused political tensions to rise but also led to growing fears of an aggressive trade war between Russia and the West. This is potentially bad news in particular for the Eurozone economy, which has virtually no buffer to contain external shocks. 

Uncertainty surrounding the outlook for the Eurozone has therefore increased, also due to economic indicators being increasingly worse than expected while the economy stagnated during the second quarter. Finally, there is uncertainty about Federal Reserve monetary policy. Speculation has grown about the Fed hiking interest rates earlier than expected in the wake of better than expected US economic growth data. All eyes are now on the Fed’s press conference on 17 September in the hope of gleaning hints from Fed President Yellen.
We believe this is a temporary correction; one which occurs every few months. In the meantime, a market upturn is already visible and the outlook for global growth remains robust. The negative market sentiment did not filter through to the real economy; oil prices and interest rates have fallen further. However, we are somewhat more cautious about Europe and have expanded our positions in US and emerging market equities slightly.